A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."